Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week still battling for $20,000 support as the market takes in a week of severe losses.

What felt all but impossible just weeks ago is now reality as $20,000 — the all-time high from 2017-2020 — returns to give investors a grim sense of deja vu.

Bitcoin dipped as low as $17,600 over the weekend, and tensions are running high ahead of the June 20 Wall Street open.

While BTC price losses have statistically been here before — and even lower — concerns are mounting for network stability at current levels, with attention particularly focused on miners.

Add to that the consensus that macro markets have likely not bottomed and it becomes understandable why sentiment around Bitcoin and crypto is at record low levels.

Cointelegraph takes a look at some major areas of interest for hodlers when it comes to Bitcoin price action in the coming days.

Bitcoin rescues $20,000 on weekly chart

At $20,580, Bitcoin’s latest weekly close could have been worse — the largest cryptocurrency managed to retain a key support level at least on weekly timeframes.

The wick below stretched $2,400, however, and a repeat performance could heighten the pain for those betting on $20,000 forming a significant price level.

Overnight, BTC/USD reached highs of $20,629 on Bitstamp before returning to consolidate immediately below the $20,000 mark, indicating that on lower timeframes, the situation remains precarious.

While some call for a snap recovery, the overall mood among commentators remains one of more cautious optimism.

“Over the weekend, while the fiat rails are closed, $BTC dropped to a low of $17,600 down almost 20% from Friday on good volume. Smells like a forced seller triggered a run on stops,” Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives trading platform BitMEX, argued in a Twitter thread on the day.

Hayes postulated that the recovery came as soon as those forced sales ended, but more sell-side pressure may still come.

“Is it over yet ... idk,” another post read.

“But for those skilled knife catchers, there may yet be additional opportunities to buy coin from those who must whack every bid no matter the price.”

The role of crypto hedge funds and related investment vehicles in exacerbating BTC price weakness has become a key topic of debate since the May Terra LUNA implosion. With Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and others now joining the chaos, forced liquidations resulting from multi-year lows may be what is required to stabilize the market long term.

“Bitcoin is not done liquidating large players,” investor Mike Alfred argued over the weekend.

“They will take it down to a level that will cause the maximum damage to the most overexposed players like Celsius and then suddenly it will bounce and go higher once those firms are completely obliterated. A story as old as time.”

Elsewhere, $16,000 is still a popular target, this in itself only equating to a 76% drawdown from Bitcoin’s November 2021 all-time highs. As Cointelegraph reported, estimates currently run as low as $11,000 — 84.5%.

“$31k-32k was broken and used as resistance. Same is happening with $20k-21k. Main target: $16k-17k, especially $16,000-16,250,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto summarized.

It additionally described $16,000 as a “strong magnet.”

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Stocks and bonds have "nowhere to hide"

A limp outlook for equities prior to the Wall Street open meanwhile provides little by way of upside prospects for BTC on June 20.

As noted by analyst and commentator Josh Rager, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks remains in full force.

The stars seem to be aligning for shorters — globally, stocks are lining up their “worst quarter ever,” according to data current as of June 18, with crypto markets giving investors a taste of reality months in advance.

As such, it seems that the only market player able to turn the tide is the central bank, and notably the Federal Reserve.

Monetary tightening, some now claim, cannot last long, as its negative impact will force the Fed to start expanding the U.S. dollar supply once again. This in turn would see cash flow back into risk assets.

This is a perspective even shared by the Fed itself in the event that the U.S. encounters a recession — something with a high chance of happening, depending on the interpretation of recent Fed comments.

Referring to the accommodative environment with ultra-low rates, Fed governor Christopher J. Waller said in a speech June 18:

“I hope we never have another two years like 2020 and 2021, but because of the low-interest-rate environment we now face, I believe that even in a typical recession there is a decent chance that we will be considering policy decisions in the future similar to those we made over the past two years.”

For the meantime, however, policy dictates increased rate hikes, these being the direct trigger for increased risk-asset losses when announced by the Fed earlier in the month.

Miners in no mood for capitulation

Who is selling BTC at the lowest levels since November 2020?

On-chain data has been tracking the investor cohorts contributing to selling pressure — some forced, some voluntarily.

Miners, who may already be underwater when it comes to participating in finding blocks, have gone from buyers to sellers, halting a multi-year trend of accumulation.

“Miners have spent around 9k $BTC from their treasuries this week, and still hold around 50k $BTC,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirmed over the weekend.

Miner production cost, however, is difficult to calculate exactly, and different setups face drastically different mining conditions and expenses. As such, many may still be profitable even at current prices.

Data from BTC.com meanwhile delivers surprising news. Bitcoin’s network difficulty is not about to drop to reflect a miner exodus; instead, it is due to adjust upward this week.

Difficulty allows the Bitcoin network to adjust to changing economic conditions and is the backbone of its uniquely successful Proof-of-Work algorithm. If miners quit due to a lack of profitability, difficulty automatically decreases to lower costs and make mining more attractive.

So far, however, miners remain on board.

Likewise, hash rate, while coming off record highs, remains above an estimated 200 exahashes per second (EH/s). Hardware power dedicated to mining is thus at similar levels to before.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Seller or hodler, Bitcoiners see "massive" losses

Overall, however, both big and small hodlers who could not ride out the storm faced “massive” losses when they sold, Glassnode says.

“If we assess the damage, we can see that almost all wallet cohorts, from Shrimp to Whales, now hold massive unrealized losses, worse than March 2020,” researchers noted alongside a chart showing just how far BTC holdings had fallen versus cost basis.

“The least profitable wallet cohort hold 1-100 $BTC, and have unrealized losses equal to 30% of the Market Cap.”Bitcoin net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

The figures point to a state of panic among even seasoned investors, arguably a surprising phenomenon given Bitcoin’s history of volatility.

A look at the HODL Waves indicator, which groups coins by how long ago they last moved, meanwhile captures on record those selling and those buying the dip.

Between June 13 and June 19, the percentage of the overall BTC supply that last moved between a day and a week prior rose from 1.65% to nearly 6%.

Bitcoin HODL Waves chart (screenshot). Source: Unchained Capital

Sentiment almost hits historic lows

It was already “comparable to a funeral” in December 2021, but crypto market sentiment has outdone itself.

According to monitoring resource the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the average investor is now more fearful than at almost any time in the history of the industry.

On June 19, the Index, which uses a basket of factors to calculate overall sentiment, fell to near record lows of just 6/100 — deep within its “extreme fear” category.

The weekly close only marginally improved the situation, with the Index adding 3 points to still linger at levels that have historically marked bear market lows for Bitcoin.

Only in August 2019 did Fear & Greed clock a lower score.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Despite data showing that the Bitcoin (BTC) price may have fallen to the point of being unprofitable for the average miner, Marathon Digital Holdings says it will continue working to accumulate the leading crypto asset. 

Charlie Schumacher, VP of Corporate Communications at Marathon Digital told Cointelegraph on June 15 that while the company “isn’t immune to the macro environment,” it is “fairly well insulated and well-positioned” to weather the current downturn, due to the low cost of operations and fixed pricing for power.

“For reference, in Q1 2022, our cost to produce a Bitcoin was approximately $6,200. We also have fixed pricing for power, so we are not subject to changes in the energy markets.”

Schumacher added that the company has been more focused on its Bitcoin production and the accumulation of the crypto asset, with the belief that the asset will continue to appreciate in the long run.

“Because we report our financials in USD, the price of Bitcoin will always have a material impact on our financial results. To objectively evaluate our progress internally, we try to focus more on our Bitcoin production. It's important to bear in mind that Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game,” he added.

“Granted, that Bitcoin is worth less in terms of dollars at the time it is mined, but if you believe in Bitcoin's ability to appreciate in the long-run, earning more BTC is never a bad thing.”

In a June 9 statement, Marathon said it has been accumulating or “hodling” its Bitcoin and has not sold any since October 2020. As of June 1, 2022, Marathon held approximately 9,941 BTC, which is worth around  $200 million at current prices.

Keep on mining

In fact, Schumacher made the point that as the price of Bitcoin declines, so does the number of people that can continue to mine profitably, which will force inefficient miners out and also decrease the difficulty of mining new blocks.

“When the difficulty rate declines, those who are able to continue mining have the opportunity to earn more bitcoin.”

Bitcoin’s current hash rate, also known as Bitcoin’s processing power, fell from an all-time-high (ATH) of 231.428 EH/s on June 12 to 205.163 EH/s at the time of writing.

A more pronounced effect occurred a year ago after China’s crackdown on cryptocurrency mining facilities, which went from a hash rate market peak of 180.666 in May 2021 to 84.79 in July 2021. 

Price meets average cost of mining

Last week, crypto market data and analytics platform CryptoRank highlighted that on June 16, the price of BTC was on par with the average cost of mining, noting that for some, it may even be unprofitable to mine at the moment.

Markus Thielen, chief investment officer of digital asset manager IDEG Singapore, told Cointelegraph that there could be fallout from the mining industry as most had set their budgets in Q4 2021, before the change in market conditions.

“We actually expect that there will be some fall out as most of the miners appeared to set their 2022 budgets in early Q4 2021 and market conditions have materially changed.”

Thielen said they estimate that several of the smaller miners that do not have economies of scale will have a break-even rate of around $26,000 to $28,000. Bitcoin is currently priced at $20,085 at the time of writing.

Last week, a report by S3 Partners identified Marathon Digital Holdings as being one of the U.S.-listed companies with the most short-seller interest alongside MicroStrategy and Coinbase.

Like clockwork, the onset of a crypto bear market has brought out the “Bitcoin is dead” crowd who gleefully proclaim the end of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

The past few months have indeed been painful for investors, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to a new 2022 low at $17,600, but the latest calls for the asset’s demise are likely to suffer the same fate as the previous 452 predictions calling for its death.

Bitcoin obituary count. Source: 99Bitcoins

Resolute Bitcoiners have a bag full of tricks and on-chain metrics they use to determine when BTC is in a buy zone, and now is the time to take a closer look at them. Let’s see what time-tested metrics say about Bitcoin’s current price action and whether the 2021 bull market was BTC’s last hurrah. 

Some traders always buy bounces of the 200-week moving average

One metric that has historically functioned as a solid level of support for Bitcoin is its 200-week moving average (MA), as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst Rekt Capital.

BTC/USD vs. 200-week MA weekly chart. Source: Twitter

As shown in the area highlighted by the green circles, the lows established in previous bear markets have happened in areas near the 200-MA, which has effectively performed as a major support level.

Most times, BTC price has had a tendency to briefly wick below this metric and then slowly work its way back above the 200-MA to start a new uptrend.

Currently, BTC price is trading right at its 200-week MA after briefly dipping below the metric during the sell-off on June 14. While a move lower is possible, history suggests that the price will not fall too far below this level for an extended period.

Multiyear price supports should hold

Along with the support provided by the 200-week MA, there are also several notable price levels from Bitcoin’s past that should now function as support should the price continue to slide lower.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The last time the price of BTC traded below $24,000 was in December 2020, when $21,900 acted as a support level that Bitcoin bounced off of prior to its run-up to $41,000.

Should support at $20,000 fail to hold, the next support levels are found near $19,900 and $16,500, as shown on the chart above.

MVRV indicates its time to start accumulating

One final metric that suggests BTC may be approaching an optimal accumulation phase is the market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV), which currently sits at 0.969.

Bitcoin market value to realized value ratio. Source: Glassnode

As shown on the chart above, the MVRV score for Bitcoin has spent most of the time over the past four years above a value of 1, excluding two brief periods that coincided with bearish market conditions.

The brief dip that took place in March 2020 saw the MVRV score hit a low of 0.85 and remain below 1 for a period of roughly seven days, while the bear market of 2018 to 2019 saw the metric hit a low of 0.6992 and spent a total of 133 days below a value of 1.

While the data does not deny that BTC could see further price downside, it also suggests that the worst of the pullback has already taken place and that it is unlikely that the current extreme lows will persist for the long term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

A class-action suit was filed against Coinbase on Thursday claiming the trading platform was negligent in its listing of the TerraUSD stablecoin and alleging that it failed to disclose its financial relationship with Terraform Labs. This is the second class-action suit outstanding against Coinbase. A suit was filed last month in connection with the depegging of GYEN in November. 

Thursday’s suit alleges Coinbase was negligent for failing to conduct due diligence of Terraform Labs before it listed TerraUSD and misrepresenting TerraUSD’s risk as an algorithmic stablecoin. The suit compares the information on stablecoins provided by trading platforms Robinhood, Gemini and Kraken to that of Coinbase and concluded that “Rather than disclose the nature of TerraUSD as uncollateralized, controlled by an algorithm, and highly risky, Coinbase passed it off as just another stablecoin.”

The suit also claims Coinbase Ventures, the investment arm of the company, was one of the largest backers of Terraform Labs, and that was additional motivation for the company not to disclose TerraUSD’s volatility.

The plaintiffs and classes in the case are being represented by law firms Milberg Coleman Bryson Phillips Grossman and Erickson Kramer Osborne. The latter firm is also representing the plaintiffs in a case filed against Coinbase and GMO-Z.com Trust on May 13 related to the depegging of the Japanese yen-pegged GYEN stablecoin in November.

The GYEN shot up in value then dropped precipitously a week after being listed on Coinbase, causing the platform to freeze some users’ accounts. Some users also lost money – “untold millions,” according to the suit – during the incident. The suit claims GMO-Z.com failed in its duties to the plaintiffs and the class in several ways, beginning with the design of the stablecoin.

Coinbase is claimed to have engaged in negligent misrepresentation and failure to use reasonable care in listing the GYEN despite a reasonably foreseeable risk of depegging.

Magic Internet Money (MIM), a US dollar-pegged stablecoin of the Abracadabra ecosystem, joins the growing list of tokens losing their $1 value amid an untimely crypto winter. The sudden de-pegging of the MIM token commenced roughly on June 17, 7:40 pm ET, which saw the token’s price drop to $0.926 in just three hours.

Terra’s LUNA and TerraUSD (UST) death spiral not only affected the investors but also had a negative impact on numerous crypto projects, including Abracadabra’s MIM token ecosystem — as alleged by Twitter handle @AutismCapital.

Depegging of Magic Internet Money (MIM) token price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Citing an insider scoop, AutismCapital claimed that Abracadabra accrued $12 million in bad debt as a direct result of Terra’s sudden downfall “because liquidations couldn't happen fast enough to cover the protocol's MIM liabilities.”

Daniele Sestagalli, the founder of Abracadabra, however, refuted the claims of insolvency by ensuring to have enough funds to pay back the piling debts — which has been attributed to the falling MIM prices. Sestagalli stated:

“[The Abracadabra] Treasury has more money than the debt and $CRV are valuable for the protocol.”

Doubling down on his stance, Sestagalli further publicly shared the treasury address holding $12 million in assets while asking concerned investors to verify the same using on-chain data.

On the other hand, Autism Capital alleged that Sestagalli’s bad debt was created five days ago and shared the below screenshot showing his conversation about the same on MIM’s Discord group.

Sestagalli’s conversation on MIM Discord group. Source: @AutismCapital

While the risk of insolvency continues to threaten the Abracadabra protocol, either through the MIM treasury continuing to dump in value or more bad debt created, investors are advised to keep track of market fluctuations and do their own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions. 

Five days ago, on June 13, Stablecoin protocol USDD’s price dipped to $0.97 on major crypto exchanges.

To help out during the market fluctuations, the Tron DAO Reserve announced that it received 700 million USD Coin (USDC) to defend the USDD peg. As a result of the fund infusion, the team behind the stablecoin explained that the collateralization ratio of USDD is now boosted to 300%.

Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a bear market first on June 18 as BTC price action gave up $20,000 support.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price crosses under 2017 all-time high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD sliding under $20,000 for the first time since December 2020, reaching press-time lows of $19,066.

As nerves heightened after the United States Federal Reserve's comments on the inflation outlook, crypto markets bore the brunt of a sell-off, which began after shock Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures last week.

Losing the psychologically significant $20,000 mark, Bitcoin also achieved a lifetime first — dropping below its previous halving cycle's high for the first time in its history.

The largest cryptocurrency had until now avoided such a move, this being reserved for altcoins, notably Ether (ETH) earlier in the week, which has also now slipped below the $1,000 mark for the first time since January 2021.

Reacting, commentators attributed the latest weakness to liquidity problems at investment fund Three Arrows Capital (commonly known as 3AC) in addition to existing troubles tied to FinTech protocol Celsius and the overall macro environment.

Three Arrows co-founder Zhu Su said that the firm was "in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out," without confirming specific problems.

The abrupt dip below $20,000 came during weekend trading where thin order book liquidity amplified volatility.

A bear year unlike any other?

BTC/USD thus sealed 37% losses for the first two weeks of the month, making June 2022 the worst month of June on record, according to data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass.

Year-to-date, the pair traded down almost 60% at the time of writing, over 70% below last November's all-time highs of $69,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, historical trends suggest that 80-84.5% is the classic drawdown target for bear markets, this putting BTC/USD at between $11,000 and $14,000.

Bitcoin monthly price performance. Source: Coinglass.com

"BTC still needs more volume & volatility than at present to match volume levels at previous Bear Market Bottoms at the 200 MA," popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital tweeted, continuing analysis of Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a key lifelong support line.

"Promising sign is that seller volume is above-average for the 1st time this week but much more is needed for final capitulation."Bitcoin/USD 1-week candle chart. Source: Tradingview.com

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

After Norway and Liechtenstein, Ukraine became the third country outside the European Union (EU) to join the European Blockchain Partnership (EBP), an initiative derived by 27 member states to deliver cross-border public services.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine announced the country’s move to join the EBP as an observer on June 17. With the ultimate goal of integrating its digital economic space with the EU, Ukraine plans to expand its interstate blockchain network partnership with other countries.

Ukraine’s intent to join the EBP dates back to July 2021, when Oleksii Zhmerenetskyi, the head of the Parliamentary group, Blockchain4Ukraine, and Konstantin Yarmolenko, the founder and CEO of Virtual Assets of Ukraine, wrote a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. The letter declared Ukraine’s interest in joining the EBP and the European Blockchain Services Infrastructure (EBSI). von der Leyen later confirmed the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EBP as an observer.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Yarmolenko stated Ukraine’s interest in running test-node of the EBSI and pilot use cases of the cross-border public services based on the blockchain technology. He highlighted that the cryptocurrency donations during the Russia-Ukraine war “proved as important support,” stating:

“Next step is full blockchain integration of Ukraine and EU based on EBP/EBSI initiatives.”

After working with the EBP on blockchain pilot use cases as an observer, Ukraine aims to gain full membership. Yarmolenko further revealed that Ukraine is targeting additional blockchain partnerships to provide the citizens of Ukraine with cross-border public services including verification of educational credentials/diplomas and identity credentials and refugee/asylum registration and support.

While sharing details about the partnership, Yarmolenko stated that the move to join the EBP is a way to strengthen ties with the EU, adding that “I’d even call it blockchain integration with EU.”

Additionally, pointing out one of the advantages of the EU-wide blockchain partnership, Zhmerenetsky stressed that Ukraine's accession to the EBP would reduce the recognition of Ukrainian documents for higher education and driver's licenses for Ukrainian refugees in Europe.

Mairead McGuinness, the Commissioner for Financial Services, Financial Stability and Capital Markets Union at the European Commission, recently highlighted the need for “Regulating all crypto-assets — whether they're unbacked crypto-assets or so-called stablecoins.”

The EU commissioner also disclosed plans to discuss a proposal with the French government via Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA):

“MiCA rules will be the right tool to address the concerns on consumer protection, market integrity and financial stability. This is something that is so urgent given recent developments.”

A group of 14 United States senators and House representatives have signed a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency extolling what they believe are the benefits of crypto mining.

In a Thursday letter, many U.S. lawmakers including pro-Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis and Representative Tom Emmer addressed EPA administrator Michael Regan, requesting the government agency analyze the potential impact of crypto mining in an effort to balance innovation with environmental concerns. The group of 14 senators and representatives claimed mining could have a “substantial stabilizing effect on energy grids” and cited examples of mining operations using flared gas and renewable energy sources.

“Digital assets, and their related mining activities, are essential to the economic future of the United States," said the letter. “Favoring one technology over another, including proof-of-work versus proof-of-stake, can stifle innovation, erode future economic gains, and limit affiliated efficiencies.”

In addition to Lummis and Emmer, the lawmakers who signed the letter were all members of the Republican Party, including Senators Bill Hagerty, Kevin Cramer, and Steve Daines. House Representatives Patrick McHenry, Pete Sessions, Bill Posey, Bill Huizenga, Andy Barr, Anthony Gonzales, Brian Steil, William Timmons, and Ralph Norman also approved the message to EPA administrator Regan.

The Republicans’ request to Regan stood in contrast to an April letter to the EPA from a bipartisan group of 22 lawmakers. They raised “serious concerns” around crypto firms operating in the United States, claiming that the companies contributed to greenhouse gas emissions and were not operating in accordance with either the Clean Air Act or the Clean Water Act.

“Cryptocurrency mining is poisoning our communities,” said the April letter to Regan. “The rapidly expanding cryptocurrency industry needs to be held accountable to ensure it operates in a sustainable and just manner to protect communities.”

In May, the Bitcoin Mining Council responded to the April letter with one of its own, alleging many of the lawmakers’ claims on mining were inaccurate. Many environmental groups, including Greenpeace and the Sierra Club, later urged government agencies under the Biden administration to implement new approaches in their response to crypto mining.