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Uganda’s gold discovery: What it could mean for crypto

Uganda’s gold discovery: What it could mean for crypto

Is gold becoming inflationary? Can Bitcoin replace it as a store of value due to its scarcity and reliability? Are Uganda’s numbers implausible? Questions arise.

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These are fraught times for the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector, so it isn’t surprising that industry proponents might seize upon any promising news to help charge flagging markets. A Reuters report out of Uganda last week about a massive gold ore discovery supplied just this kind of fuel.

What does the state of gold mining in Africa have to do with the price of global Bitcoin (BTC)? Quite a bit, potentially.

Bitcoin has periodically laid claim to being digital gold largely on the strength of its strict 21 million supply limit, which makes it non-inflationary and a good store of value — in theory. Gold, of course, is the store of value par excellence, with a limited supply and a solid track record that goes back millennia.

But, if Uganda is sitting on 31 million metric tons of gold ore, as the government declared, might not that substantially boost the world’s gold supply? That in turn could lower the price of gold — and make it a less secure “store of value” generally. Gold’s loss could be the cryptocurrency’s gain.

Some drew encouragement from this notion. Microstrategies CEO Michael Saylor, for instance, posted a video on Twitter about the Ugandan discovery of “huge gold deposits” which might net 320,158 metric tons of refined gold “valued at $12.8 trillion.” As Saylor noted on June 17: “#Gold is plentiful. #Bitcoin is scarce," further telling CNBC:

“Every commodity in the world has looked good in a hyperinflationary environment, but the dirty secret is you can make more oil, you can make more silver, you can make more gold […] Bitcoin’s the only thing that looks like a commodity that is scarce and capped.”

But, perhaps there is less here than meets the eye. The 320,158 metric tons of refined gold that the Ugandan mining ministry spokesman said could be produced from the new deposits in the country’s northeastern corner would far exceed the 200,000 metric tons in above-ground gold that exist in the entire world today. One gold mining trade publication went so far as to suggest the Ugandan government may have been confusing metric tons with ounces in its projections. 

The World Gold Council was asked for comment about the Uganda discovery and the plausibility of its numbers. The Council doesn’t typically comment on media reports of gold discoveries, a spokesperson told Cointelgraph, but added:

“In the absence of formal ore reserve/resource declarations, we would not expect these ‘discoveries’ to contribute materially to mine supply in the foreseeable future.”

But, to the larger issue, Saylor may have a point. The fact is that more gold can always be mined, whether in Uganda or somewhere else, especially with advances in surveying and mining technologies, including aerial exploration. And, if so, doesn’t this make Bitcoin, with its strict 21 million BTC limit, look non-inflationary by comparison — and a potentially better store of value?

Garrick Hileman, head of research at Blockchain.com, told Cointelegraph:

“The Ugandan find underscores why the approximately 200 million holders of Bitcoin believe that ‘digital gold’ — Bitcoin — is superior to actual gold in terms of its scarcity and reliability as a store of value in the decades to come.”

As was the case with other major gold discoveries in history, like the 19th century South African gold rush, the introduction of this much new gold — or even just growing awareness of the Ugandan find — “could have significant negative price implications for gold over the coming years,” Hileman said. 

Not all agree with this assessment, however. “People label Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ because it was considered a hedging asset, especially against the stock market. This has not been true at least for the last three years,” Eshwar Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.

The increasing participation of institutional investors means BTC is now more correlated with risky assets like equities, whereas a store-of-value instrument should be uncorrelated with the stock market. Added Venugopal:

“When institutional investors enter such markets, their usual trading stop-loss limits apply and assets in their portfolio and by extension the market become positively correlated with each other. The fact that Bitcoin is bought and sold just like any other risky asset undermines the ‘digital gold’ tag given to it.”

In point of fact, “it is clear that the majority of investors do not see Bitcoin as digital gold yet,” Ferdinando Ametrano, founder and CEO of CheckSig — and a founder of the Digital Gold Institute — told Cointelegraph. 

Rwenzori mountains in Uganda.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is not governed by any entity or a third party and hence is subject to price swings purely based on how the market prices it, Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and International at Luno, told Cointelegraph. This means that it probably has to go through a significant maturation before it ever becomes “digital gold.” As Ayyar further explained:

“Any new monetary asset undergoes a process of monetization through which it becomes more widely regarded as a store of value as a first step. This process could take another 5–10 years even. Gold has been around for thousands of years. Hence, while Bitcoin has all the properties of potentially replacing gold, this may still take some time.”

The Bitcoin network has been in operation for a little more than 10 years and market penetration is still less than 1% globally, Ayyer added — though others believe global adoption rates are higher. In any event, “Bitcoin penetration needs to get higher levels as a first step.”

Are the numbers plausible?

As mentioned, the numbers put out by the Ugandan mining ministry drew some skepticism. Generally speaking, gold has survived as a store of value over the millennia because it is durable, scarce and difficult to mine. A great deal of gold ore is required to produce a single gram of refined gold.

Typically, a high-quality underground gold mine will yield 8 to 10 grams of refined gold per metric ton of gold ore, according to the World Gold Council, while a marginal quality mine generates 4 to 6 grams per metric ton. If one settles on a rough average of 7 grams of refined gold per metric ton of gold ore, this means Uganda’s mines will generate about 217 metric ton of refined gold, a far cry from the 320,158 metric tons of refined gold that Solomon Muyita, spokesperson from Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, told Reuters could be produced by the country’s new discovery. The addition of 217 metric tons would raise the world’s stock of “above-ground” refined gold by only about one-tenth of one percent.

All this has only an indirect bearing on the Bitcoin “digital gold” question, which Venugopal, among others, acknowledges is a difficult one. As with fiat currencies, “Bitcoin’s value comes from adoption and users’ faith in the system,” he said. Before Bitcoin can be a store of value, it requires a user base comparable to that of a large fiat currency, in his view, adding:

“I see Bitcoin becoming a risk asset but not as a ubiquitous store of value because it is volatile, highly inefficient to mint and challenges sovereignty.” 

In fact, Venugopal views Bitcoin more “as an experiment to show what is possible and spur innovation.” It has accomplished this, but he expects a more “efficient” cryptocurrency to eventually emerge and supplant it, or perhaps a central bank digital currency. 

Ayyer agrees that BTC’s recent price volatility hasn’t brought it any closer to achieving “digital gold” status. “Bitcoin has never existed under circumstances we're currently witnessing and hence this is definitely a test for the asset class as a whole.”

Elsewhere, Hileman is more optimistic. Technologically, Bitcoin simply offers more than a commodity like gold can ever deliver in the long run as an SoV. “Algorithmically deterministic supply schedules such as Bitcoin's hold a big predictability edge over gold.” And predictability is critical for “taming” exchange rate volatility, which must be subdued “for something to evolve from serving as a ‘store of value’ to actual ‘money,’” Hileman said.

And, while relatively few people view Bitcoin as a store of value today, things need not remain that way. “At the burst of the dot-com bubble, Amazon lost 90% of its value because most investors did not understand how pervasive e-commerce would become,” commented Ametrano. Blockchain technology may be similarly under-appreciated today, he added, referencing economist Paul Krugman’s 1998 prediction that the internet would prove less relevant than the fax machine.

Sometimes intelligent people simply don’t know.

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Chainalysis tips Australia will crack down on misleading crypto ads

Chainalysis tips Australia will crack down on misleading crypto ads

Chainalysis’ head of international policy Caroline Malcolm explained this means bringing crypto-assets into a similar regulatory regime to financial products as occurred in the United Kingdom.

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Chainalysis’ head of international policy Caroline Malcolm expects Australia’s new rules governing crypto advertising, promotion and consumer safeguards to follow a similar path to the United Kingdom when they come into place within the next year. 

“I think we're more likely to see something along the lines of the UK model which is really focusing on a crackdown on misleading advertising or advertising which doesn't present the risks alongside the opportunities.”

During the Chainalysis Links event in Sydney on June 21, Malcolm told Cointelegraph that this meant treating crypto products and services in a similar way to financial products and services when it comes to advertising and promotion.

In March, U.K.'s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) released new guidance requiring advertisers to clearly state the level of risk associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. Malcolm noted that Singapore took a different approach by effectively banning all public marketing of crypto to retail customers.

“It's not about banning advertising or banning the sale of particular assets to particular parts of the community, but really about making sure that there's no misleading advertising, that there are disclosures about what you're actually buying when you're getting into the sector,” she said.

Malcolm said that in addition to rules on advertising, there will also be a number of consumer protection measures put in place, such as a requirement for crypto exchanges to verify that their customers understand the risks of investing as part of their onboarding process.

“When you're onboarding to some sort of crypto exchange or platform, you need to answer a few questions about [...] the level of risk in this space or the nature of specific risks.”

“It's more this idea that there's some sort of barrier to entry that you can't just sort of jump on and start trading.”

First Australian conference

The Chainalysis Links event on Tuesday marked the first in-person conference for the blockchain data platform in Australia. Approximately 100 participants were in attendance coming from both the crypto and traditional commercial and government sectors.

Australia’s parliament has been sending strong signals about the need to regulate the digital asset market.

In October 2021, the Senate Committee for Australia as a Technology and Financial Centre released its much-awaited recommendations looking at how it could regulate cryptocurrency and digital assets.

In March, the conversation was further advanced with a consultation paper on “Crypto asset secondary service providers: Licensing and custody requirements” which sought feedback on minimum standards of conduct by crypto-asset service providers and safeguards for consumers.

Malcolm says she expects any changes to Australia’s advertising, promotion and consumer safeguarding laws to come into place within the next 6-12 months but said this would also be dependent on how much priority crypto regulation is to the recently elected Labor government, which came into power in May.

“We're three weeks into post-election. So we haven't heard any news yet. But I would certainly expect to hear something before the end of the year in terms of where they see the timeline for this [...] piece of legislation.

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Breaking: Harmony’s Horizon Bridge hacked for $100M

Breaking: Harmony's Horizon Bridge hacked for $100M

The layer-1 blockchain’s main bridge between Ethereum, Binance Chain, and Bitcoin has been exploited for nine figures, but says its BTC bridge has not been affected.

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Breaking news

The Horizon Bridge to the Harmony layer-1 blockchain has been exploited for $100 million in altcoins which are being swapped for Ether (ETH).

The hack may vindicate previously raised community concerns about the robustness of the two of four multisig that reportedly secures the bridge.

Starting at about 7:08 am until 7:26 am ET, 11 transactions were made from the bridge for various tokens. They have since begun sending tokens to a different wallet to swap for ETH on the Uniswap decentralized exchange (DEX), then sending the ETH back to the original wallet.

So far, Frax (FRAX), Wrapped Ether (WETH). Aave (AAVE), Sushi (SUSHI), Frax Share (FXS), AAG (AAG), Binance USD (BUSD). Dai (DAI), Tether (USDT), Wrapped BTC (WBTC), and USD Coin (USDC) have been stolen from the bridge through this exploit.

The Horizon Bridge facilitates token transfers between Harmony and the Ethereum network, Binance Chain and Bitcoin. Harmony, the operator of the bridge, announced late on June 23 that the bridge has been halted. It said the BTC bridge and its assets have not been affected by the attack.

The Harmony team also said it was working with “national authorities and forensic specialists” to determine who is responsible. A post-mortem is sure to follow.

The developers and the co-founder of Harmony Nick White did not respond to requests for comment. Harmony is a layer-1 blockchain using proof-of-stake consensus. Its native token is ONE.

Concerns have previously been expressed as to the soundness of Horizon’s multisig wallet on Ethereum which only required two out of the four signees to drain the funds. A founder of Chainstride Capital crypto-focused venture fund Ape Dev noted on Twitter April 2 that the low number of required signers would leave the bridge open for “another 9 figure hack.”

Ape Dev’s prediction appears to have become a reality as the bridge is now down $100 million in assets.

He is far from the only developer in crypto to have qualms with the security of token bridges.

Vitalik Buterin discussed the issues with token bridges in a Reddit post this January. He posited that when bridges get exploited, it threatens the liquidity on each chain affected. He added that as the amount of token bridges increases, the threat of a 51% attack on one chain could present greater contagion risk to others.

Since his prediction, Meter’s token bridge, Axie Inifinity’s Ronin Bridge and the Wormhole Bridge were each exploited for nearly a combined $1 billion.

Multisigs are an ongoing security issue in attacks. The Ronin Bridge was secured by nine validators, only five of which were required to verify a transaction. The attacker took control of the required five validators and extracted over $600 million in assets.

The market does not yet appear to have responded to the attack as prices of all the coins and tokens in question have not made a significant move. However, ONE has dropped 7.4% over the past 24 hours, with most of the fall coming in the past 5 hours. It is trading at $0.024 according to CoinGecko.

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Coinbase to shut down Coinbase Pro to merge trading services

Coinbase to shut down Coinbase Pro to merge trading services

Launched in 2018, Coinbase Pro is designed to feature unlimited trading volumes, supporting more than 250 cryptocurrencies.

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Coinbase’s professional trading platform Coinbase Pro will cease to exist as the cryptocurrency exchange is restructuring services to bring them all into one platform.

The United States-based crypto trading firm Coinbase officially announced on June 22 that it will start sunsetting Coinbase Pro to migrate all advanced trading services into one unified Coinbase account.

Coinbase Pro’s services will migrate to Advanced Trade, Coinbase’s new trading section available on the exchange’s main website, Coinbase.com. The section was initially launched in March 2022, providing traders with in-depth analysis and actual trading directly on Coinbase.

According to the announcement, Advanced Trade will provide the same volume-based fees as Coinbase Pro. Depending on volumes and taker or maker orders, Coinbase Pro’s fees range from 0% to 0.6%, according to data from Coinbase’s official website at the time of writing.

The upcoming migration of Coinbase Pro to Advanced Trade will take place gradually over the next several months as the exchange will continue to launch new upgrades to Advanced Trade.

Coinbase noted that it will notify its customers about exact dates for sunsetting Coinbase Pro, adding:

“For customers holding funds on Coinbase Pro, there is no action to take- funds will remain safe on Coinbase. Meanwhile, customers are welcome to begin using Advanced Trade on the Coinbase mobile app and Coinbase.com.”

According to the announcement, the migration aims to simplify the trading process on Coinbase by allowing professional traders to access advanced trading tools and use general Coinbase features in one place, using one balance. “In the past, advanced traders have used Coinbase Pro for more in-depth trades and analysis. But in order to use other Coinbase features, you had to transfer funds to your primary Coinbase account,” the firm said.

Launched in 2012, Coinbase is a publicly-traded company and is one of the largest crypto trading platforms in the world. The company launched Coinbase Pro in 2018, targeting professional investors and focusing on expanded trading services, providing exposure to more cryptocurrencies.

The original Coinbase platform primarily targeted beginners, reportedly supporting around 100 cryptocurrencies, while Coinbase Pro provided exposure to over 250 digital assets. Coinbase Pro also offers unlimited trading amounts, while the original general Coinbase platform’s trading volume is capped depending on payment methods and regions.

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GitHub users respond with ‘Bitcoin bill’ idea to Gillibrand-Lummis bill

GitHub users respond with 'Bitcoin bill' idea to Gillibrand-Lummis bill

The senators seek comments from industry stakeholders, consumers and interested parties.

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Now every interested user has a chance to leave their mark on a crypto bill that could define the industry guidelines in the United States in the near future, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA). The document was uploaded on GitHub, a platform populated by software and product experts, by its co-sponsors to get public feedback. 

On Wednesday, June 22, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand uploaded the full content of their Responsible Financial Innovation Act on GitHub. As Lummis’ representatives commented:

“The senators seek comments from industry stakeholders, consumers and interested parties to ensure that this landmark legislation reflects the innovative nature of the industry it regulates, while also adding confidence, trust and stability for consumers.”

By the press time, there are six commentaries available on the act page, with some of them being more of a solitary battle-cry (“Taxation is theft”), while others suggesting debatable edits to the document.

A user called Stduey explains why Bitcoin is different and should not be included with risky "assets" due to its "absolute scarcity" feature. In his opinion, that makes a case for an absolutely separate bill for Bitcoin:

“If you buy 5,000 satoshis for $1, you will have 5,000/2.1 quadrillion satoshis, forever, and no one can change that. People cannot understand the magnitude of this yet but this subtle difference is what separates Bitcoin from every other crypto, fiat, precious metal, and commodity.”

Another commentator, savage1r, elaborates on the inconsistency of the current framework in regard to airdrops — it ties the taxable value of coins to its entry price, which might be significantly higher than at the cash-out phase:

“Airdrop receivers should only have to pay short or long term taxes on the coins they cash out assuming the initial value is $0 because they do not realize the gains until they trade or sell.”

The highly awaited RFIA was introduced in the U.S. Senate on June 7. There is a broad consensus among the community that the bill is favorable to crypto.

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Bybit enters into settlement agreement with Ontario Securities Commission

Bybit enters into settlement agreement with Ontario Securities Commission

Bybit is currently holding listing discussions with the provincial regulator, and if the process fails, the firm will cease operations in Ontario.

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Bybit announced that it reached a settlement agreement with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) on Thursday, a day after the OSC released a Statement of Allegations against the crypto asset trading platform.

The agreement includes several measures to be taken by Bybit as it engages in registration talks with the Canadian regulator. This announcement comes after the OSC issued financial penalties against Bybit and KuCoin, claiming violation of securities laws and operating unregistered crypto-asset trading platforms.

According to the Settlement Agreement, Bybit has disgorged revenues totaling approximately $2.47 million and compensated the OSC $7,707 (CAD 10,000) for costs. No additional monetary penalties were levied on Bybit as part of the agreement.

Also, Bybit announced that it would not accept new accounts from Ontario residents, provide any new goods to existing accounts held by Ontario investors, or conduct marketing and promotional efforts targeted at Ontario residents.

Registration discussions with the provincial regulator are currently underway, and if the process fails, Bybit will cease operations in Ontario. Investors who already own cryptocurrencies on Bybit will be required to terminate their positions in specific restricted products such as leveraged contracts, margin trading, or credit extension. Retail investor funds or assets in Ontario that are unspent or unutilized may be used for unrestricted products or withdrawn from the Bybit platform, the exchange noted.

Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit in a statement noted that:

“We appreciate the OSC's efforts in protecting Ontario investors and look forward to cooperating with the OSC in all respects in the registration process.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Bybit for additional comments but did not receive a response by press time. This story will be updated as more information becomes available.

The decision by the regulator was the latest in a string of warnings and legal actions taken against crypto exchanges that provide services to Ontario consumers. In March 2021, the OSC issued a deadline for crypto firms operating in Ontario to register with the province's securities laws by April. Ontario has eight registered cryptocurrency trading platforms, including Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitvo, and Bitbuy, as of June 1.

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